Boeing 20-Year Forecast Shows Steady Demand for Nearly 44,000 New Airplanes

Emerging markets, with expanding middle classes, dynamic and competitive airline networks and sustained aviation investment, will play an outsized role in global air traffic growth, helping drive a need for 43,600 commercial airplanes over the next 20 years, Boeing [NYSE: BA] projected today.

These markets will represent over 50% of the global commercial fleet in 2044, up from nearly 40% in 2024. Ahead of the Paris Air Show, Boeing released its 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which also predicts airplane supply will catch up with market demand around the end of the decade, enabling carriers to increasingly renew and grow their fleets.

“Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled as the commercial aviation industry navigated significant challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. “Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”

CMO forecast highlights through 2044:

• Passenger traffic is forecast to grow 4.2% annually - more than doubling in size as it continues to outpace global economic growth.
• The global fleet will nearly double to more than 49,600 commercial airplanes as airlines add capacity to meet travel demand.
• About 80% of in-service airplanes will be replaced with more than 21,000 deliveries, improving fleet efficiency and capability.
• Single-aisle airplanes will make up 72% of the global fleet, up from 66% in 2024, driven largely by short-haul travel and low-cost carriers in emerging markets.
• The global passenger widebody fleet will increase to approximately 8,320 airplanes, up from roughly 4,400 in 2024 - growth increasingly driven by carriers in emerging markets expanding their long-haul fleets.
• Supply chain diversification and expanding express cargo networks will drive a nearly two-thirds expansion of the global freighter fleet and the need for 2,900 production and converted freighters.

Air travel trends:

• Airline networks serve about 30% more airport pairs than a decade ago, providing more convenient non-stop flight options.
• As a share of discretionary expenses, travel spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels as consumers prioritize air travel.

Boeing has published the CMO annually since 1961. As the longest-running forecast of its kind, the CMO is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry.