Boeing (NYSE: BA) forecasts that air carriers in North America will take delivery of 7,530 new airplanes over the next 20 years at a market value of $760 billion. Taking retirements of airplanes into account, the North America fleet will grow from 6,610 airplanes today to about 9,330 airplanes by 2030.
Demand in the United States and Canada will focus primarily on single-aisle jetliners. This is driven by the need to replace aging airplanes with new, more fuel-efficient airplanes. For the purposes of the Boeing forecast, the North America market consists of the U.S. and Canada. Mexico is included in the forecast for Latin America.
"The North American commercial aviation market improved for a second consecutive year with passenger traffic growth at a modest 3 percent," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, who released Boeing's 2011 North America market outlook today in Montreal. "The region's airline industry is poised for long-term, moderate growth. Airlines are expected to continue focusing on capacity discipline and improving financial performance."
Boeing forecasts single-aisle airplanes will grow to 73 percent of the total North America fleet by 2030. A majority of this increased growth in the single-aisle category is related to traffic traveling to and from economically dynamic regions in Central and South America. New single-aisle airplanes, such as the Next-Generation 737 and the recently launched 737 MAX, offer significant advantages in improved capabilities, fuel efficiency and maintenance costs, as well as enhanced environmental performance.
Long-haul international traffic will continue to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 4.5 percent. This growth is expected to result in demand for an additional 1,180 new fuel-efficient, twin-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
Large airplanes (747-size and larger) will not see significant demand in North America, with only about 50 airplanes, or 1 percent of the total investment.
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